The CyberWire Pro Policy Briefing for 1.6.20

Summary

By the CyberWire staff

The US missile strike that killed Quds Force commander Major General Qasem Soleimani last week has increased tensions between the US and Iran. The Western Standard reports that Iran has withdrawn from the nuclear arms agreement it concluded with the United Nations Security Council several years ago. The US says that it killed Soleimani in order to disrupt "imminent" attacks on US personnel that he was organizing and directing. It was, the Washington Post quotes US President Trump as saying, an attack meant to stop a war, not start one. The President has also warned Iran not to consider retaliation (he said he has, the Military Times notes, an additional fifty-two targets the US can hit should Iran undertake any further action against US personnel or interests). Iran of course has vowed reprisals, and the US Department of Homeland Security has issued a Bulletin on the National Terrorism Advisory System that warns against the possibility of both terrorist attacks and cyberattacks against US targets. Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency Director Christopher Krebs has tweeted both a warning and a recommendation that enterprises review Iranian cyber tactics, techniques, and procedures. They should, he says, “pay close attention to your critical systems, particularly ICS.” US defensive measures may be expected to pay particular attention to industrial control systems.

US allies are evaluating their own state of readiness. NATO leaders are meeting in Brussels this afternoon, Reuters reports, to consider how to address the conflict between Iran and the US.

The English-language Moscow Times takes a look at Russia's new Internet control law, expected to receive an extensive real-world trial this year. The goal is autarkic: the measures require all ISPs to install tools that give Roskomnadzor, the country's Internet "watchdog" access to all Internet traffic, presumably with a capability for deep-packet inspection that can track content and activity without user knowledge or interaction. Russia's new "sovereign Internet" will also feature its own domain name system. The Moscow Times quotes observers as predicting that all of this may prove more difficult to do in practice than the government hopes.

Selected Reading

NATO to hold urgent meeting on Monday over Iraq-Iran crisis (Reuters) NATO ambassadors will gather on Monday in Brussels for an urgent meeting convene...

Innocent Cyber Bystanders Entangled in an Act of War (International Policy Digest) The start of a new decade may usher in cyber warfare as the new normal in global combat.

A 'Forever War' With Iran Is Unlikely. But More Death and Violence Seems Inevitable (Time) Admiral James Stavridis breaks down what might happen next after Soleimani death

US on high alert for cyber-attack retaliation from Iran (Computing) Iran has pledged to take revenge for the assassination of Qassem Soleimani last week

Iran says its response to killing of revered Quds Force commander will be ‘against military sites' (Military Times) “[Trump] doesn’t know international law. He doesn’t recognize UN resolutions either. Basically he is a veritable gangster and a gambler. He is no politician he has no mental stability.

Iran withdraws from nuclear arms agreement (The Western Standard) Early Sunday morning, the United States announced it was suspending most operations against ISIS (Daesh).

Soleimani is dead, but the enemy still stands (TheHill) While Iran is likely to retaliate, Soleimani’s death comes at a vulnerable time as the regime fights economic collapse and popular rebellion.

Trump says Tweet serves as ‘notification’ to Congress that U.S. may 'quickly & fully strike back’ against Iran (Military Times) Trump’s assertion on Twitter Sunday that he can use social media to inform Congress of future military actions against Iran is likely to cause further tensions between lawmakers and the White House.

Trump says Iranian military leader was killed by drone strike ‘to stop a war,’ warns Iran not to retaliate (Washington Post) The death of Qasem Soleimani, a feared Iranian operator, put the region on edge.

Trump says there’s no intent to start a war with Iran. Here’s where things stand. (Military Times) Following the assassination of a top Iranian general, the U.S. military is waiting for Iran -- and Iraq's -- next moves.

Trump threatens Iran that US is targeting 52 sites if Tehran retaliates following death of Iranian general (Military Times) “Let this serve as a WARNING that if Iran strikes any Americans, or American assets, we have targeted 52 Iranian sites (representing the 52 American hostages taken by Iran many years ago), some at a very high level & important to Iran & the Iranian culture, and those targets, and Iran itself, WILL BE HIT VERY FAST AND VERY HARD. The USA wants no more threats!”

Trump doubles down on striking cultural sites in Iran (Elko Daily Free Press) President Donald Trump insisted Sunday that Iranian cultural sites were fair game for the U.S. military, dismissing concerns within his own administration that doing so could constitute

Trump’s Iran Policy Spirals Toward Control (Bloomberg Opinion via Yahoo News) The U.S. airstrike that killed Qassem Soleimani, head of Iran's Revolutionary Guard Quds Force, and Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis, a leader of Iranian-backed militias in Iraq, was not simply a sharp departure in the Trump administration’s policy toward Tehran. It also marks a larger

Petraeus Says Trump May Have Helped ‘Reestablish Deterrence’ by Killing Suleimani (Foreign Policy) The former U.S. commander and CIA director says Iran’s “very fragile” situation may limit its response.

Killing of Soleimani follows long push from Pompeo for aggressive action against Iran, but airstrike brings serious risks (Washington Post) The secretary of state began conversations with President Trump months ago about killing Iran’s top commander, but Trump at the time would not countenance such an operation, officials said.

Trump threatens sanctions if US troops exit Iraq (BBC News) The US president warns Iraq of sanctions "like they've never seen before" if US troops are expelled.

Will Russia Enforce Its New Internet Laws in 2020? (The Moscow Times) Legislation may be strict, but experts say it’s easy to circumvent.

When A Tech Company Engages In Severe Human Rights Violations (Forbes) In December 2019, several British politicians wrote to the UK Foreign Secretary to raise the issue of a Tech company, Huawei, allegedly engaging in severe human rights violations in China.

5G Is Where China and the West Finally Diverge (The Atlantic) The rollout of speedy new cellular networks is a geopolitical turning point, but neither Trump nor the public yet recognizes this.

Telecoms security bill may exclude Huawei from Estonian market, firm says (ERR) Chinese mobile phone giant Huawei has written to interior minister Mart Helme (EKRE) in opposition to a bill requiring greater security checks on its devices and software. The company says that the bill – which concerns all telecoms companies - does not constitute fair and transparent regulation and would in effect exclude it from the market.

FUREY: Banning Huawei could be a national unity moment for Canada (Toronto Sun) There’s an eerie scene in the new documentary American Factory that needs to be watched by any Canadian who is still on the fence about the Huawei question.The 2019 film now available on Netf…

FCC says it will accept comments until February 3 on Huawei, ZTE security risks (Reuters) The U.S. Federal Communications Commission (FCC) said on Friday it will accept p...

New Orleans to Boost Cyber Insurance to $10M Post-Ransomware (Dark Reading) Mayor LaToya Cantrell anticipates the recent cyberattack to exceed its current $3 million cyber insurance policy.

Indiana counties battle cyber attackers with help from state, feds (Indianapolis Business Journal) To fight cyberattacks, state and local government officials are taking a page from the enemy’s playbook by expanding protections against attacks from one entry point to thousands.