Infosec teams assessment: An essential tactic for risk forecasting.
After five years of study, Rick Howard (The Cyberwire’s Chief Analyst, CSO, and Senior Fellow) has decided that calculating cyber risk does not have to involve higher order math like Monte Carlo Simulations and Bayesian algorithms. Instead, it is much more useful to use Fermi estimates to get quick but rough estimates that will likely be in the ballpark in terms of orders of magnitude so that senior leaders can make resource decisions. In this episode, Rick discusses the book that got him there, “Superforecasting” by Philip Tetlock and Dan Gardner.
For a complete reading list and even more information, check out Rick’s more detailed essay on the topic.