Bayes Rule: A different way to think about cybersecurity risk.
Superforecasting techniques in general and specifically Fermi-outside-in-back-of-the-envelope calculations are two legs to the cybersecurity risk forecasting stool. The third leg is something called the Bayes Rule, and it's the mathematical foundation that proves that superforecasting techniques and Fermi estimates work. In this show, we explain Bayes for no-math CISOs like me.
For a complete reading list and even more information, check out Rick’s more detailed essay on the topic.