How sovereign is Europe's space industry?
Maria Varmazis: Energy independence is a huge problem for Europe right now. That is -- that's how people heat their homes in the winter. I mean, it's just, like, that -- that's a very, you know, kitchen table issue where a space feels very, very abstract. I imagine it's a much harder sell. I don't have a solution here. If I did, I wouldn't be on a podcast.
Ethan Cook: That's why I don't think we've seen any, also, major legislation on that front --
Maria Varmazis: Right.
Ethan Cook: -- because I think it's to the point it's really easy to point out the problem. Again, kudos, clap on the back for me. Hey, that's something we need to fix, but --
Maria Varmazis: But I'm sure no one in Europe thought of any of this, right? We're so smart.
Ethan Cook: -- you know, I'm a truly original one of one here.
Maria Varmazis: Welcome. I'm Maria Varmazis, and you're listening to "T-Minus Space-Cyber Briefing." In this show, we examine the evolution of cybersecurity and the global and orbital infrastructure that powers, protects, and connects our lives. Hi, everybody, and thanks for joining me today. We're picking up where we left off in last week's episode. Recapping a little bit last week, T-Minus Producer Ethan Cook, and I kicked off a chat about space sovereignty in Europe, what it means, and why the emphasis is on it now and its parallels to data sovereignty, lots of geopolitics, lots of current events, definitely listen to last week's episode if you missed it. This week is part two. We're finishing up our European space sovereignty chat and looking at it today through two primary lenses: One is the global space supply chain, and the other is the influence that NATO has on this entire discussion. Yeah, so lots to get into, so let's dive into it with Producer Ethan Cook. Bringing us back in as we dive right in with Space Sovereignty and the Supply Chain.
Ethan Cook: Here's another wrinkle to this that probably doesn't get talked about as much, not in the sovereignty aspect of it, but more from a resiliency aspect of it, which is supply chain and where we're sourcing stuff from. You know, we talk about, oh, we need to have consistent access, not just to, you know, fuel, but rare earth metals, semiconductor chips, et cetera. These are all very important for just being able to run the infrastructure, et cetera, but the ability to produce these things on your own is critical. I think that's something that the US has been working really hard to get that sovereignty aspect. It's why we've seen so much investment in the chip industry within the US, because I think they realized in the COVID era that that was something that we were not nearly as secure on as we wanted to be.
Maria Varmazis: No, we are not. No.
Ethan Cook: I think Europe is having to really grapple with this, too, because unlike the US, they don't have the land to just prop up factories as much, as well as the, you know, mining access to some of these rare earth metals that the US has. While the US does have to go international to a degree, they do have some of that within the country, and I think that that is another wrinkle to the sovereignty question, which is, are you really sovereign if 80% of your rocket or 80% of your satellite isn't even sourced from your own country, right? Like, great. You can launch it. You can build it within your own country, but if everything comes from another country, what happens if a supply chain shortage happens or what happens if that country experiences a global conflict or a regime change or any of these things which could have dramatic impacts on a supply chain and overnight destroy it? That, to your point, a one-year delay is -- that it can be a death sentence to some of these programs. That is another thing which I'm sure the conversation is happening because people would be foolish to not have it, I haven't seen as much legislation as I would have loved to have seen or, you know, movement to really start addressing some of these concerns to speed up supply chains, to increase resiliency, and to minimize how much foreign dependence happens across the globe.
Maria Varmazis: Yeah, I mean, that that is such a fascinating point, Ethan, and I think drilling down into that a little bit, it becomes how much European space sovereignty is actually possible without going European colonialism 2.0, which I don't want to see. Just to be clear, I do not want to see.
Ethan Cook: I don't think anyone does.
Maria Varmazis: I don't think -- no. Assuming Europe stays where it's at, you know, where how much sovereignty is achievable, you know, bits to atoms is sort of the phrase that I use. They're going to have to be dependent on some international trade. How much is enough sovereignty?
Ethan Cook: It's, like, and how redundant is it? Are they able to have multiple sources for rare earth metals, right? That even though their primary source may be from country X, if that country has a problem, they have country Y a backup, right? Maybe it's not as much. Maybe the cost is not as efficient, but at least there is a consistent influx.
Maria Varmazis: Yeah, but it's expensive as heck.
Ethan Cook: Yes.
Maria Varmazis: Then it becomes how much is Europe willing to pay for all this? How much is the European taxpayer willing to front for all this? How much urgency does the average European taxpayer feel about funding this kind of thing, given everything else going on? I mean, unless Russia is literally knocking on the border, which some would say they are. It depends on who you ask. It depends on where you are physically located in Europe, I would also say.
Ethan Cook: Yes.
Maria Varmazis: Having just been in the Baltics a few months ago, I was like, yeah, it really, really depends on who you ask. You know, do you need Russia, literally, in your in your country for this to become urgent or can you -- can you prepare for this ahead of time? How much autonomy is worth paying for? There's also -- there's so many other parallel problems going on. You know, energy independence is a huge problem for Europe right now. That is -- that's how people heat their homes in the winter. I mean, it's just like -- that's a very, you know, kitchen-table issue where a space feels very, very abstract. I imagine it's a much harder sell. I don't have a solution here. If I did, I wouldn't be on a podcast.
Ethan Cook: That's why I don't think we've seen any, also, major legislation on that front, right?
Maria Varmazis: Right.
Ethan Cook: I think it's to the point it's really easy to point out the problem, like, you know, kudos, clap on the back for me. Hey, that's something we need to fix, but --
Maria Varmazis: I'm sure no one in Europe thought of any of this. We're smart.
Ethan Cook: You know, I'm a truly original, one-of-one here, but it's a lot harder to not only build that base, the cynic in me, wants to say that some of this we've missed the opportunity on. I think, to your point, the Ukraine invasion was a really good opportunity to galvanize, especially within Europe. While there was some galvanization, I think you could argue that there was probably an opportunity for more. You know, that's the cynic in me saying that, you know, the boat may have sailed on that opportunity, and we may be waiting for another one, because as well, the Ukraine war still very much going on, I think the fervor for it has dramatically reduced. I also think the US has been very savvy, whether you like it or not, with its negotiation of rare earth metal deals to help out with that and support that effort there. I think that that was an opportunity for Europe to negotiate similar deals, right? I think those are concerns long, long term that are not necessarily easily resolved and will require an immense amount of political capital to get resolved.
Maria Varmazis: When we're talking about international collaboration, I mentioned that Russia was prior to 2022, a key player and a key partner. I have been fascinated to see the emergence of India as a partner to European space program. Now, India, in case people don't know -- I would hope they do -- is a massive player in space on its own.
Ethan Cook: That's a player in the world.
Maria Varmazis: Yes, in everything, and they have an extremely mature space program, extremely successful. They have been the launch provider for many countries, actually, for their own sovereign space program. If a country wants to have their own sovereign satellite for Earth observation or whatnot, they build the satellite. In a lot of cases, they will send it to India to launch it for them if they don't have a launch capability of their own. India has been a huge player for a long time, and I've been just seeing over the journalist wire, essentially, so many press releases about Indian startups or established Indian space industry players increasingly going to events in Europe, collaborating with European players. To me, this is sort of like the underreported story because people just go, well, what's China doing? It's like, well, China is doing what China's doing. They're huge. Obviously, India is also huge. I think they are very well primed to be a key collaborator and partner to Europe if it is mutually agreeable to both parties.
Ethan Cook: Yeah, I mean, I think the India conversation is something that has flown on the radar for a long time now. I think the US has been very -- if you track US investments and if you track US international partnerships, India has been something that has been a quiet but very, very growing force within Southeast Asia and South Asia as a US partner. It is very clearly in response to China. I think the US has recognized that China can't be stopped. It can't. For years, we were banking on their economy collapsing. It didn't. For years, we were hoping that we could maybe make out a friendly trade agreement and all that. While that can happen to a degree, it's not really going to stop them. The advancements that they're happening and the control that they're exerting over South Asia, East Asia, Southeast Asia is immense.
Maria Varmazis: The Pacific.
Ethan Cook: Yeah, the Pacific as a whole, Indian Ocean as a whole is immense, and the US doesn't have the presence there by itself to really stop that, and so the US has pivoted over the past two decades, increasingly year over year to look at India as a viable partner in this. It's not a coincidence that Biden, Trump, and Obama have all been friends with Modi.
Maria Varmazis: The Prime Minister, yeah.
Ethan Cook: -- and their previous versions. There has been a ton of courting there, a ton of investment there from US businesses, US military, etc. I think Europe is also realizing the same thing, that if they want to -- and India has recognized that. India's strength right now, at least in my opinion, is being able to not function as a competitor to the European and US nations, but as a complement, saying, hey, we're not trying to compete with you. We're trying to give you the tools that you can't have or don't want to invest in or whatever and use them with you. We'll run your operations for you. We'll run support agreements for you, trade agreements, etc., manufacturing, whatever it may be. In return, we'll make a ton of money off you, and in return, you don't have to invest more money into building out your own domestic. It's a win-win on the geopolitical stage, as well, because it's a hard counter to China. Having another regional superpower there that is growing very rapidly has actively made it harder for China to really -- The Belt and Road Initiative, for those who follow that, is still, obviously, going on, and it will be going on. There's nothing really stopping it, but it is not nearly as powerful as it could have been. Let's put it that way.
Maria Varmazis: Yeah, yeah, truly, you ignore India at your own peril. India has an extremely educated workforce, a very mature space program that's been extremely successful, and for everybody who's always watching costs, they've had these successful space missions at way lower cost than a lot of other space programs in the United States. I'm always keeping an eye on deals that are happening between European and UK companies and organizations, and the same in India, because there's a lot going on there, and it's just fascinating to watch. [ Music ] On that note, let's take a short break now. When we come back, we'll switch topics from the global supply chain over to NATO and its impact on the space sovereignty conversation. Back in a few. [ Music ] You've got me thinking about NATO just now, which I wasn't planning on talking about, because it's like, how much do we want to dive into this?
Ethan Cook: We can do a NATO conversation next time and expand that out.
Maria Varmazis: Oh, I know. When I was at the Cyber Headquarters in December -- this is such a brag. I can't believe I get to say this. I'm just going to say, "When I was at NATO's Cyber Headquarters in Estonia," and I remember my ears perking up because they said, by the way, we also established a Space Centre of Excellence in the last few years. I remember thinking, well, that's very interesting. I should remember that, so NATO established their Space Centre of Excellence in 2023. NATO is a factor in this conversation.
Ethan Cook: It has to be.
Maria Varmazis: I'm wondering how much of the space sovereignty discussion is either complicated or augmented by a conversation maybe being spurred by NATO. I'm wondering out loud.
Ethan Cook: No, I think it's a great question to ask. I think when you think of NATO traditionally, you think of this rock-solid alliance. I think, obviously, over the past 10 years, that's been a little shaky. This to the same thing of driving this sovereignty aspect, I think with the US not only just willing to pull back in general, but also, pull back on some of these core military agreements that have been rock solid for decades. Europe has had our back when we went to war in Iraq and Afghanistan, right?
Maria Varmazis: Yes, they did. Yep.
Ethan Cook: That was -- these are rock-solid agreements that have been there for a long time, with the US signaling that it is not willing to contribute as much, or if it's going to -- its contributions will be with caveats added to them. I think you get to the conversation, and this is, again, driving that concern where Europe is saying we need to -- and NATO is saying that while the US, we can still use them. They'll still be there. They'll still contribute. We need to make sure that in order for NATO's long-term security, that there has to be investment on the European front to make sure that Europe has its standing so that if the US were to ever leave or the US decides it doesn't want to contribute as much or whatever would happen, that that doesn't leave the rest of the countries caught with their pants down. I think, which would not have happened if it was five years ago.
Maria Varmazis: Yeah, oh, man, I feel like we could have an entire NATO conversation. I've got such a NATO -- if you haven't listened to the NATO podcast that I did about the cyber coalition. We'll put a link in the show notes because I learned so much about what NATO's doing. That was on the cybersecurity side.
Ethan Cook: When you talk about the various, you know, aspects of NATO, obviously, you have -- the first parts are kind of outlining what it is. Then the later aspects, in the various articles, are outlining what the expectations are of the various countries. Article 5 is the most -- to your point, the most well-known one, which is the, everyone has the right for mutual defense, where if one is invaded, we all fight back. It was a core pillar of the Cold War and why we had kind of this constant proxy war situation where no one ever really wanted to fight because no one really wanted to kick off another global war, but everyone wanted to have any proxy war with people that weren't involved in the USSR and NATO.
Maria Varmazis: This was, I was interviewing someone who actually works at NATO and she was saying, Article 3 is that allies may separately and jointly by means of continuous and effective self-help and mutual aid, maintain and develop their individual and collective capacity to resist an armed attack.
Ethan Cook: Okay. They're saying that the interpretation of that would be for information sharing.
Maria Varmazis: That was part of it. The thing I'd learned about on my NATO trip that surprised me was about Article 3 that's getting a lot of -- I don't know if it's renewed emphasis, but that was the emphasis of some of the conversations I had with actual NATO staff. It was -- Article 3 is the idea around continuous and effective self-help and mutual aid, and that that can apply to things, not just, like, physical infrastructure, but also, virtual infrastructure and cybersecurity, but also, infrastructure for information sharing. I'm just thinking the context of that conversation that I was having at that time was specifically around cybersecurity. I could easily see that also applying in the context of space.
Ethan Cook: I think it would be foolish for it not to. I think you have -- you know, information is power. Knowledge is power, and especially, you know, we see it with the Five Eyes to pull another military alliance. [Laughter] You know, that is a whole information sharing alliance. That's the whole point of it. I think when you look at NATO, that's a similar aspect, which is the ability to respond to actual physical threats with collective firepower is what NATO is always known for, but the ability to prevent, the ability to circumvent, the ability to predict these events are just as important. I think that's a also a hidden strength of NATO. It will, if it's not already it will be -- and I would be surprised if it isn't -- be a core part of their space strategy, both from a cybersecurity perspective, as well as just a traditional national security perspective to securing space, to securing capabilities for the long term. I think that that is an aspect which, to, kind of, tie it back to that sovereignty point, is critical, right? Europe being able to provide and share information within itself, within its member states, with the UK, across the EU, et cetera, is critical. That is something that, I think, getting away from relying on other countries for intelligence, while that should be something we consider, and intelligence sharing should be, obviously, always prioritized, because the more data points you have, it's just better for so many reasons. I think having the ability to say, we have our own strong intelligence capabilities. We have our own strong training capabilities, we have our own strong detection abilities, that is so important for Europe. I think it's an underlying conversational point for this, is to, you know, really approach this both from a physical independence sovereignty question, from a data independence and sovereignty question, and from an intelligence national security sovereignty question.
Maria Varmazis: All right. Ethan, yeah, we could probably talk about this for hours, genuinely. I think you and I probably could.
Ethan Cook: It's my wheelhouse.
Maria Varmazis: I know, and it is genuinely so fascinating to kind of get nerdy about this, because there's -- it's current events; it's space; it's international relations; it's all the stuff that I think you and I both really enjoy thinking and talking about. I have a feeling we're going to have more follow-ups, especially as the Space Act continues to work its way through in legislation. We're going to keep an eye on that, but in the meantime, Ethan, this has been so much fun. Yes, I loved it.
Ethan Cook: Yeah, we'll do it again, so thank you so much.
Maria Varmazis: Thank you for having me on. That's "T-Minus Space-Cyber Briefing" brought to you by N2K CyberWire. If you like what you heard today, you will also enjoy our newsletter, Signals and Space. You will get research and notes pulled together by our producer, Ethan Cook, and me, along with this week's top space cyber news stories. Subscribe by visiting the cyberwire.com/newsletters. As always, we would love to know what you think of our podcast. Your feedback ensures that we deliver the insights that keep you a step ahead in the rapidly changing cybersecurity landscape. If you like the show, please share a rating and review in your podcast app. Please also fill out the survey and the show notes or send an email to space@n2k.com. We're proud that N2K CyberWire is part of the daily routine of the most influential leaders and operators in the public and private sector, from the Fortune 500 to many of the world's preeminent intelligence and law enforcement agencies. N2K helps cybersecurity professionals grow, learn, and stay informed. As the nexus for discovery and connection, we bring you the people, the technology, and the ideas shaping the future of secure innovation. Learn how at n2k.com. Thank you again for listening to T-Minus. I am your host, Maria Varmazis, and the show is produced by Ethan Cook and Liz Stokes. We're mixed by Elliott Peltzman and Tré Hester, with original music by Elliott Peltzman. Our Executive Producer is Jennifer Eiben, with Content Strategy by Ma'ayan Plaut. Peter Kilpe is our Publisher. See you next week.
