Ukraine at D+389: ICC's arrest warrant.
N2K logoMar 20, 2023

After the ICC issues a warrant for his arrest in connection with the unlawful deportation of Ukrainian children, Russia's President Putin responds with weekend visits to the Sevastopol Children's Palace (to show that he's on the side of the children) and to Mariuopl (to show that Donetsk is Russia's).

Ukraine at D+389: ICC's arrest warrant.

Chinese President Xi Jinping is in Moscow for talks with Russian President Putin. Mr. Xi is expected to remain in Moscow through Wednesday, according to the AP. The Telegraph quotes a statement by Mr. Putin on the eve of President Xi's visit: "We are grateful for the balanced line that China has taken regarding events taking place in Ukraine, for understanding their background and true cause." China has outlined a peace proposal that would afford Russia an arguably face-saving way out of its maximal objectives of complete subjugation, allowing the conflict to freeze and Russia to retain such territory as it presently holds. The proposal is couched in respect for sovereignty and territorial integrity.

Ukrainian forces have maintained their supply lines to defensive positions in Bakhmut, Al Jazeera says. Fighting for the ruined city of Avdiivka resembles the fighting for Bakhmut, the UK's Ministry of Defence reported this morning. "Over the past three weeks, Russian forces have made creeping gains around the Ukrainian-held Donbas town of Avdiivka, immediately north of Donetsk city. The Russian operation has largely been carried out by the 1st Army Corps of the Donetsk People’s Republic; local personnel who will know the terrain well. Avdiivka has been on the front line of the Donbas conflict since 2014; the city is now largely destroyed. The sprawling Avdiivka Coke Plant complex is likely to be seen as particularly defendable key terrain as the battle progresses. Tactically, the situation is similar to that in the larger town of Bakhmut, further north. Ukrainian forces continue organised defence, but their supply lines to the west are increasingly threatened by the Russian envelopment operation."

The International Criminal Court issues arrest warrants for President Putin and his Commissioner for Children's Rights.

On Friday, March 17th, 2023, the International Criminal Court in the Hague issued an arrest warrant for Russian President Vladimir Putin and his Commissioner for Children's Rights, Maria Alekseyevna Lvova-Belova on charges that they're responsible for war crimes involving the deportation of Ukrainian children to Russia. The ICC's announcement reads, in part:

"Mr Vladimir Vladimirovich Putin, born on 7 October 1952, President of the Russian Federation, is allegedly responsible for the war crime of unlawful deportation of population (children) and that of unlawful transfer of population (children) from occupied areas of Ukraine to the Russian Federation (under articles 8(2)(a)(vii) and 8(2)(b)(viii) of the Rome Statute). The crimes were allegedly committed in Ukrainian occupied territory at least from 24 February 2022. There are reasonable grounds to believe that Mr Putin bears individual criminal responsibility for the aforementioned crimes, (i) for having committed the acts directly, jointly with others and/or through others (article 25(3)(a) of the Rome Statute), and (ii) for his failure to exercise control properly over civilian and military subordinates who committed the acts, or allowed for their commission, and who were under his effective authority and control, pursuant to superior responsibility (article 28(b) of the Rome Statute).

"Ms Maria Alekseyevna Lvova-Belova, born on 25 October 1984, Commissioner for Children’s Rights in the Office of the President of the Russian Federation, is allegedly responsible for the war crime of unlawful deportation of population (children) and that of unlawful transfer of population (children) from occupied areas of Ukraine to the Russian Federation (under articles 8(2)(a)(vii) and 8(2)(b)(viii) of the Rome Statute). The crimes were allegedly committed in Ukrainian occupied territory at least from 24 February 2022. There are reasonable grounds to believe that Ms Lvova-Belova bears individual criminal responsibility for the aforementioned crimes, for having committed the acts directly, jointly with others and/or through others (article 25(3)(a) of the Rome Statute)."

The Guardian has an overview of the Russian policies and practices that led to the warrant.

It's an arrest warrant, not an indictment, but the International Criminal Court begins its prosecutions in this manner. In any case, Russia has dismissed the warrants as "null and void," since Russia doesn't recognize the ICC's jurisdiction, and that it denies the court's legitimacy. "We consider the very formulation of the issue outrageous and unacceptable. Russia, as well as several other states, do not recognize the jurisdiction of this court and, accordingly, any decisions of this kind are null and void for Russia in terms of law," Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said Friday.

The International Criminal Court was established by the Rome Statute in 1998, an international agreement that went into force in 2002, and which presently has one-hundred-twenty-three state parties. "123 countries are States Parties to the Rome Statute of the International Criminal Court. Out of them 33 are African States, 19 are Asia-Pacific States, 18 are from Eastern Europe, 28 are from Latin American and Caribbean States, and 25 are from Western European and other States." The ICC's purpose is to bring to justice those responsible for four classes of crime: genocide, crimes against humanity, war crimes, and the crime of aggression. Thus it represents an attempt to render permanent the system under which the International Military Tribunal in the aftermath of the Second World War prosecuted leading Nazis for such crimes.

In fairness to Russia, the US has in the past also expressed reservations about the ICC, fearing that it could be used as a political tool against US citizens. US President Biden said, in an Executive Order canceling sanctions the US had formerly put in place against the ICC, that the US nonetheless "continues to object to the International Criminal Court’s (ICC) assertions of jurisdiction over personnel of such non-States Parties as the United States and its allies absent their consent or referral by the United Nations Security Council and will vigorously protect current and former United States personnel from any attempts to exercise such jurisdiction." Reuters reports that President Biden did say Friday that in this case he believed the warrant was justified.

Both Mr. Putin and Ms Lvova-Belova are, of course, beyond reach of arrest, but the warrant may inhibit them from traveling, and, the ICC hopes, perhaps deter further crimes, especially the deportation of Ukrainian children, which the ICC believes to be ongoing. The ICC expects more arrests. "As I stated when in Bucha last May," ICC prosecutor Karim Khan said, "Ukraine is a crime scene that encompasses a complex and broad range of alleged international crimes. We will not hesitate to submit further applications for warrants of arrest when the evidence requires us to do so."

Mr. Putin seems interested in publicly shrugging off the warrant. Over the weekend he appeared at the "Children's Palace" in occupied Crimea, a four-story building that can sleep up to three-hundred children. In addition to accommodations, it holds a large number of classrooms. The Telegraph reports that Mr. Putin ordered the building's construction in May of 2021, some nine months before the onset of his most recent invasion of Ukraine. After touring the Crimean Children's Palace, President Putin departed Sevastopol to visit Mariupol, in the Donetsk region. It's believed, the New York Times and others say, that the visit to Mariupol represents Mr. Putin's first trip to Ukrainian territory occupied since he ordered the invasion, the "special military operation," in February of 2022.

Tacit acknowledgement of failure to take and hold Zaporizhzhia.

Russian occupation forces have declared the ruined city of Melitopol the temporary capital of the Zaporizhzhia oblast. "On 3 March 2023, authorities in the Russian-controlled part of Zaporizhzhia Oblast published a decree that declared occupied Melitopol as the oblast capital," the UK's Ministry of Defence wrote in its Sunday morning situation report. "The Russian-installed head of the oblast, Evgeniy Balitskiy, said that this was a temporary measure until the city of Zaporizhzhia was controlled by Russia. Zaporizhzhia is one of the four oblasts President Putin claimed to have annexed as part of the Russian Federation on 30 September 2022. Russia has never occupied Zaporizhzhia city, a major industrial centre of 700,000 people, which is approximately 35km from the current front line. The quiet declaration of an alternative capital is likely tacit acknowledgement within the Russian system that its forces are highly unlikely to seize previously planned major objectives in the near future."

Implications of changes to Russian conscription laws.

Changes to Russian conscription laws, now before the Duma, are probably intended to address manpower shortfalls induced by widespread use of student deferments. The UK's Ministry of Defence wrote Saturday morning, "The Russian authorities are likely preparing to facilitate wider military conscription to resource its military requirements. On 13 March 2023, Russian Duma deputies introduced a bill to change the age bracket for conscription to men aged 21-30 years, from the current 18-27. The law is likely to be passed, and would come into force in January 2024. Russia has continued to run conscription call-up cycles twice a year since Soviet times. They are distinct from the exceptional ‘partial mobilisation’ of veterans carried out since September 2022. Russia continues to officially bar conscripts from operations in Ukraine, though at least hundreds have probably served through administrative mix ups or after being coerced to sign contracts. Many 18-21 year old men currently claim exemption from the draft due to being in higher education. The authorities are highly likely changing the age bracket to bolster troop numbers by ensuring that students are eventually forced to serve. Even if Russia continues to refrain from deploying conscripts in the war, extra conscripts will free up a greater proportion of professional soldiers to fight." The raise in the minimum age for conscription from 18 to 21 may be intended to ameliorate the corrosive social effects of student deferments.

Hacktivist auxiliary hits Indian healthcare records.

CSO, citing observations made by security firm Cloudsec, reports that the Russian hacktivist auxiliaries of the Phoenix group have compromised healthcare information in India. Phoenix claimed to have obtained sensitive data and posted samples in confirmation of their attack. Cloudsek writes, "An analysis of the samples shared concluded that the affected entity is the Health Management Information system belonging to the Indian Ministry of Health." Phoenix, a group associated with KillNet, indicated that the attack was retaliation for India's agreement to the sanction and oil-price cap the G20 imposed over Russia's invasion of Ukraine.

A statement on the Phoenix Telegram channel explained, "India decided to impose sanctions against the Russian Federation. As we all know, going on the attack while not taking care of your defense is a rather stupid and risky move. Especially when your enemy is such a powerful state as the Russian Federation. Phoenix did not approve of the actions of the Indian government and threw his firebird feather into the most painful and unprotected place of the enemy— his medicine. In this way, we easily got access to the Indian Ministry of Health. We have access to every hospital, its staff and chief physicians. Phoenix can easily stop their activities at any moment.”

This interest in attacking healthcare organizations is not unusual. Microsoft's Azure Network Security Team reported Friday that the healthcare sector is now providing the principal target set to KillNet and its affiliates. As has been the case in the past, these attacks have shown a strong preference for botnet-driven distributed denial-of-service attacks. The incident at the Indian Ministry of Health is thus an outlier in terms of attack type, but it's entirely consistent with the Russian auxiliaries' target selection practices.

Chinese President Xi Jinping is in Moscow for talks with Russian President Putin. Mr. Xi is expected to remain in Moscow through Wednesday, according to the AP. The Telegraph quotes a statement by Mr. Putin on the eve of President Xi's visit: "We are grateful for the balanced line that China's has taken regarding events taking place in Ukraine, for understanding their background and true cause." China has outlined a peace proposal that would afford Russia an arguably face-saving way out of its maximal objectives of complete subjugation, allowing the conflict to freeze and Russia to retain such territory as it presently holds. The proposal is couched in respect for sovereignty and territorial integrity.

Ukrainian forces have maintained their supply lines to defensive positions in Bakhmut, Al Jazeera says. Fighting for the ruined city of Avdiivka resembles the fighting for Bakhmut, the UK's Ministry of Defence reported this morning. "Over the past three weeks, Russian forces have made creeping gains around the Ukrainian-held Donbas town of Avdiivka, immediately north of Donetsk city. The Russian operation has largely been carried out by the 1st Army Corps of the Donetsk People’s Republic; local personnel who will know the terrain well. Avdiivka has been on the front line of the Donbas conflict since 2014; the city is now largely destroyed. The sprawling Avdiivka Coke Plant complex is likely to be seen as particularly defendable key terrain as the battle progresses. Tactically, the situation is similar to that in the larger town of Bakhmut, further north. Ukrainian forces continue organised defence, but their supply lines to the west are increasingly threatened by the Russian envelopment operation."

The International Criminal Court issues arrest warrants for President Putin and his Commissioner for Children's Rights.

On Friday, March 17th, 2023, the International Criminal Court in the Hague issued an arrest warrant for Russian President Vladimir Putin and his Commissioner for Children's Rights, Maria Alekseyevna Lvova-Belova on charges that they're responsible for war crimes involving the deportation of Ukrainian children to Russia. The ICC's announcement reads, in part:

"Mr Vladimir Vladimirovich Putin, born on 7 October 1952, President of the Russian Federation, is allegedly responsible for the war crime of unlawful deportation of population (children) and that of unlawful transfer of population (children) from occupied areas of Ukraine to the Russian Federation (under articles 8(2)(a)(vii) and 8(2)(b)(viii) of the Rome Statute). The crimes were allegedly committed in Ukrainian occupied territory at least from 24 February 2022. There are reasonable grounds to believe that Mr Putin bears individual criminal responsibility for the aforementioned crimes, (i) for having committed the acts directly, jointly with others and/or through others (article 25(3)(a) of the Rome Statute), and (ii) for his failure to exercise control properly over civilian and military subordinates who committed the acts, or allowed for their commission, and who were under his effective authority and control, pursuant to superior responsibility (article 28(b) of the Rome Statute).

"Ms Maria Alekseyevna Lvova-Belova, born on 25 October 1984, Commissioner for Children’s Rights in the Office of the President of the Russian Federation, is allegedly responsible for the war crime of unlawful deportation of population (children) and that of unlawful transfer of population (children) from occupied areas of Ukraine to the Russian Federation (under articles 8(2)(a)(vii) and 8(2)(b)(viii) of the Rome Statute). The crimes were allegedly committed in Ukrainian occupied territory at least from 24 February 2022. There are reasonable grounds to believe that Ms Lvova-Belova bears individual criminal responsibility for the aforementioned crimes, for having committed the acts directly, jointly with others and/or through others (article 25(3)(a) of the Rome Statute)."

The Guardian has an overview of the Russian policies and practices that led to the warrant.

It's an arrest warrant, not an indictment, but the International Criminal Court begins its prosecutions in this manner. In any case, Russia has dismissed the warrants as "null and void," since Russia doesn't recognize the ICC's jurisdiction, and that it denies the court's legitimacy. "We consider the very formulation of the issue outrageous and unacceptable. Russia, as well as several other states, do not recognize the jurisdiction of this court and, accordingly, any decisions of this kind are null and void for Russia in terms of law," Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said Friday.

The International Criminal Court was established by the Rome Statute in 1998, an international agreement that went into force in 2002, and which presently has one-hundred-twenty-three state parties. "123 countries are States Parties to the Rome Statute of the International Criminal Court. Out of them 33 are African States, 19 are Asia-Pacific States, 18 are from Eastern Europe, 28 are from Latin American and Caribbean States, and 25 are from Western European and other States." The ICC's purpose is to bring to justice those responsible for four classes of crime: genocide, crimes against humanity, war crimes, and the crime of aggression. Thus it represents an attempt to render permanent the system under which the International Military Tribunal in the aftermath of the Second World War prosecuted leading Nazis for such crimes.

In fairness to Russia, the US has in the past also expressed reservations about the ICC, fearing that it could be used as a political tool against US citizens. US President Biden said, in an Executive Order canceling sanctions the US had formerly put in place against the ICC, that the US nonetheless "continues to object to the International Criminal Court’s (ICC) assertions of jurisdiction over personnel of such non-States Parties as the United States and its allies absent their consent or referral by the United Nations Security Council and will vigorously protect current and former United States personnel from any attempts to exercise such jurisdiction." Reuters reports that President Biden did say Friday that in this case he believed the warrant was justified.

Both Mr. Putin and Ms Lvova-Belova are, of course, beyond reach of arrest, but the warrant may inhibit them from traveling, and, the ICC hopes, perhaps deter further crimes, especially the deportation of Ukrainian children, which the ICC believes to be ongoing. The ICC expects more arrests. "As I stated when in Bucha last May," ICC prosecutor Karim Khan said, "Ukraine is a crime scene that encompasses a complex and broad range of alleged international crimes. We will not hesitate to submit further applications for warrants of arrest when the evidence requires us to do so."

Mr. Putin seems interested in publicly shrugging off the warrant. Over the weekend he appeared at the "Children's Palace" in occupied Crimea, a four-story building that can sleep up to three-hundred children. In addition to accommodations, it holds a large number of classrooms. The Telegraph reports that Mr. Putin ordered the building's construction in May of 2021, some nine months before the onset of his most recent invasion of Ukraine. After touring the Crimean Children's Palace, President Putin departed Sevastopol to visit Mariupol, in the Donetsk region. It's believed, the New York Times and others say, that the visit to Mariupol represents Mr. Putin's first trip to Ukrainian territory occupied since he ordered the invasion, the "special military operation," in February of 2022.

Tacit acknowledgement of failure to take and hold Zaporizhzhia.

Russian occupation forces have declared the ruined city of Melitopol the temporary capital of the Zaporizhzhia oblast. "On 3 March 2023, authorities in the Russian-controlled part of Zaporizhzhia Oblast published a decree that declared occupied Melitopol as the oblast capital," the UK's Ministry of Defence wrote in its Sunday morning situation report. "The Russian-installed head of the oblast, Evgeniy Balitskiy, said that this was a temporary measure until the city of Zaporizhzhia was controlled by Russia. Zaporizhzhia is one of the four oblasts President Putin claimed to have annexed as part of the Russian Federation on 30 September 2022. Russia has never occupied Zaporizhzhia city, a major industrial centre of 700,000 people, which is approximately 35km from the current front line. The quiet declaration of an alternative capital is likely tacit acknowledgement within the Russian system that its forces are highly unlikely to seize previously planned major objectives in the near future."

Implications of changes to Russian conscription laws.

Changes to Russian conscription laws, now before the Duma, are probably intended to address manpower shortfalls induced by widespread use of student deferments. The UK's Ministry of Defence wrote Saturday morning, "The Russian authorities are likely preparing to facilitate wider military conscription to resource its military requirements. On 13 March 2023, Russian Duma deputies introduced a bill to change the age bracket for conscription to men aged 21-30 years, from the current 18-27. The law is likely to be passed, and would come into force in January 2024. Russia has continued to run conscription call-up cycles twice a year since Soviet times. They are distinct from the exceptional ‘partial mobilisation’ of veterans carried out since September 2022. Russia continues to officially bar conscripts from operations in Ukraine, though at least hundreds have probably served through administrative mix ups or after being coerced to sign contracts. Many 18-21 year old men currently claim exemption from the draft due to being in higher education. The authorities are highly likely changing the age bracket to bolster troop numbers by ensuring that students are eventually forced to serve. Even if Russia continues to refrain from deploying conscripts in the war, extra conscripts will free up a greater proportion of professional soldiers to fight." The raise in the minimum age for conscription from 18 to 21 may be intended to ameliorate the corrosive social effects of student deferments.

Hacktivist auxiliary hits Indian healthcare records.

CSO, citing observations made by security firm Cloudsec, reports that the Russian hacktivist auxiliaries of the Phoenix group have compromised healthcare information in India. Phoenix claimed to have obtained sensitive data and posted samples in confirmation of their attack. Cloudsek writes, "An analysis of the samples shared concluded that the affected entity is the Health Management Information system belonging to the Indian Ministry of Health." Phoenix, a group associated with KillNet, indicated that the attack was retaliation for India's agreement to the sanction and oil-price cap the G20 imposed over Russia's invasion of Ukraine.

A statement on the Phoenix Telegram channel explained, "India decided to impose sanctions against the Russian Federation. As we all know, going on the attack while not taking care of your defense is a rather stupid and risky move. Especially when your enemy is such a powerful state as the Russian Federation. Phoenix did not approve of the actions of the Indian government and threw his firebird feather into the most painful and unprotected place of the enemy— his medicine. In this way, we easily got access to the Indian Ministry of Health. We have access to every hospital, its staff and chief physicians. Phoenix can easily stop their activities at any moment.”

This interest in attacking healthcare organizations is not unusual. Microsoft's Azure Network Security Team reported Friday that the healthcare sector is now providing the principal target set to KillNet and its affiliates. As has been the case in the past, these attacks have shown a strong preference for botnet-driven distributed denial-of-service attacks. The incident at the Indian Ministry of Health is thus an outlier in term of attack type, but it's entirely consistent with the Russian auxiliaries' target selection practices.

Pirated software used to carry malware.

The Kyiv Independent reports that pirated software offered by Russian threat actors commonly carries Trojan payloads. The State Service of Special Communications and Information Protection of Ukraine (SSSCIP) warned yesterday that torrent streaming of unlicensed software remains a threat to both organizations and individuals. "Hackers trojanize ISO and installation files and upload the infected software to torrent trackers for free access," the SSSCIP cautions. "When a victim has such files downloaded and installed on their device, hackers gain access to the device’s storage, while staying invisible for a long time." The practice of using pirated software is an old one, common in the Near Abroad, as the SSSCIP points out. "In many post-Soviet countries, system administrators working for organizations and companies of various forms of ownership still use unlicensed software, including operating systems, shared via torrent trackers. By installing a copy of cracked software from a torrent, they actually give russian special agencies access to their workstations’ drives. Using cracked operating systems is especially dangerous, as cyber criminals have full administrator access to any device such a system is installed on."

Moving relief funds through crypto exchanges.

WIRED reports that the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees is turning to cryptocurrencies as a reliable way of delivering funds to refugees displaced by Russia's war against Ukraine. The UNHCR finds this method more secure than dispensing pallets of physical cash, and more flexible than electronic transfer through the traditional banking system. The UN agency is partnering with "the Stellar Development Foundation, a nonprofit that supports the growth of the Stellar blockchain network," WIRED says. "The two organizations are working alongside money transfer company MoneyGram and Circle Internet Financial, issuer of the USDC stablecoin." While cryptocurrencies have often been discussed as objects of speculation or shady transactions, they and their blockchain technology continue to show signs that their real value may lie in their ability to facilitate legitimate remittances.

Moving relief funds through crypto exchanges.

WIRED reports that the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees is turning to cryptocurrencies as a reliable way of delivering funds to refugees displaced by Russia's war against Ukraine. The UNHCR finds this method more secure than dispensing pallets of physical cash, and more flexible than electronic transfer through the traditional banking system. The UN agency is partnering with "the Stellar Development Foundation, a nonprofit that supports the growth of the Stellar blockchain network," WIRED says. "The two organizations are working alongside money transfer company MoneyGram and Circle Internet Financial, issuer of the USDC stablecoin." While cryptocurrencies have often been discussed as objects of speculation or shady transactions, they and their blockchain technology continue to show signs that their real value may lie in their ability to facilitate legitimate remittances.