Strikes against Syrian chemical weapons facilities over the weekend influence Western countries' calculations of the likelihood of Russian cyber retaliation. The coordinated strikes, carried out by US, British, and French forces operating in the region, were an attempt to cripple the Syrian government's chemical warfare capabilities and punish the regime for its recent use of them against Syrian civilians in the city of Douma. The strikes were also a warning to Russia, which is the Assad regime's principal international prop.

The first Russian responses to the strikes have been information operations, both online and published sympathetic media outlets following government lines in Syria, Russia, and Iran. The US Department of Defense Saturday reported a large increase in Russian trolling, quoting a figure of 2000%. This should probably be read as "a big increase in information operations" dressed up in some specious quantification ("2000% compared to what," as Sputnik asks).

British authorities have warned that a Russian attack on that country's critical infrastructure could prompt cyber retaliation. It's likely, however, that Russian reprisals for strikes in Syria will at least initially take a different form. Prime Minister May has been briefed on the likelihood that leading British public figures, including members of the Cabinet and other Members of Parliament, will be attacked through release of scurrilous material, "kompromat."

Germany's Foreign Minister this weekend reiterated his government's attribution of cyberattacks on German networks to Russia.

The US, also preparing for cyberattacks, is expected to impose further sanctions on Russian companies sometime today.