The Risk Episode: Black Swans, Grey Rhinos, Angels & Demons
Risk is a funny thing – our minds are constantly looking for risk, scanning our environments and our available choices. And sometimes we do a great job at anticipating and avoiding risky situations. But that doesn’t mean that we are universally good at dealing with risk. In fact, we can be downright appalling at considering and avoiding risk.
In this episode, we explore the concept of risk, why we're so bad at understanding it, and the steps we can take to improve. Perry speaks with four risk experts who will help us understand the ups and downs of how we evaluate risk. We’ll touch on everything from Black Swans to Grey Rhinos to risk frameworks, risk equations, inbuilt risk in the design of computing interfaces, and more. Featuring Michele Wucker (author of The Grey Rhino and You Are What You Risk), Christian Hunt (Founder of Human Risk), Dr. Arun Vishwanath (Founder and Chief Technology Officer of Avant Research Group), and Matt Stamper (Chief Information Security Officer and Executive Advisor at EVOTEK and co-author of the CISO Desk Reference Guides vol1 & vol2).
Resources & Books:
- Black Swan Theory
- Grey Rhino Events
- Various Risk Equations
- Risk Perception Equation, Freakonomics
- 20 Cognitive Biases That Affect Risk Decision Making, SafetyRisk.net
- Factor Analysis of Information Risk (FAIR) Framework
- The Gray Rhino: How to Recognize and Act on the Obvious Dangers We Ignore, by Michele Wucker
- You Are What You Risk: The New Art and Science of Navigating an Uncertain World, by Michele Wucker
- Why are Humans Bad at Calculating Risk?, Cogency
- Why You're Probably Not So Great at Risk Assessment, NY Times
- Why the Human Brain is a Poor Judge of Risk, Wired
- Humans are Terrible at Assessing Risk, by Kimberly Forsythe
- Why We're Awful at Assessing Risk, USA Today
- CISO Desk Reference Guides vol1 & vol2, by Bill Bonney, Gary Hayslip, Matt Stamper
Artwork by Chris Machowski.