“The Intelligence Legacy of the Yom Kippur War” – with Uri Bar-Joseph

Summary

Uri Bar-Joseph (LinkedIn) joins Andrew (Twitter; LinkedIn) to discuss the intelligence failure of the Yom Kippur War. Uri is an author and professor emeritus at Haifa University. 

What You’ll Learn

Intelligence

• How Israel failed to predict the Yom Kippur War
• Egyptian spy Ashraf Marwan’s role in the War
• How Israeli intelligence evolved post-War
• Israeli leadership’s accountability for the failure

Reflections

• Learning and adapting from mistakes
• Catastrophe and national trauma

And much, much more …

Episode Notes

This month marks the 50^th anniversary of the Yom Kippur War, the most traumatic and memorable event in Israeli history. The war is known as one of Israel’s most notable intelligences failures and is remembered as a major turning point in the trajectory of Israeli intelligence. This week on SpyCast, Andrew was joined by Uri Bar-Joseph, author of the authoritative account on the Yom Kippur intelligence failure, The Watchmen Fell Asleep. Uri is a professor emeritus at Haifa University, veteran of the Yom Kippur War, and also wrote the book that inspired Netflix’s 2018 film “The Angel,” based on the true story of Egyptian spy Ashraf Marwan. 

This episode is third in our 5-part series on Israeli Intelligence. Begin the series with a crash course in Israeli intelligence with Erez David Maisel, then check out last week’s episode with Uzi Arad, former National Security Advisor to Benjamin Netanyahu. Stay tuned for an episode next week on Israel’s top-secret special forces unit Sayaret Matkal. 

And… 

Israel is certainly not the only nation to experience a monumental intelligence failure. Here at the International Spy Museum, we highlight two of the United States’ most notorious intelligence failures in our exhibits: Pearl Harbor and the 9/11 Attacks. Visit us in Washington, D.C. to learn more. 

Quotes of the Week

“We’ve had many wars. This is the only war that we remember. This is the most dramatic event in Israeli history, at least until recently … Now that it is the 50th anniversary there is a lot of noise about it. And I think it will be remembered as such also in the future. I hope that we won't need to replace it with another traumatic event. We hope so.” – Uri Bar-Joseph

Resources 

SURFACE SKIM

*SpyCasts*

• Israeli Military Intelligence with IDF Brig. General (Res.) Yossi Kuperwasser (2023) 
• POW’s, Vietnam and Intelligence with Pritzker Curator James Brundage (2022)
• The CIA and the 9/11 Commission Report – A Conversation with Alexis Albion (2021)
• Pearl Harbor at 75: An Interview with Steve Twomey (2016)

*Beginner Resources*

• Yom Kippur, Encyclopedia Brittanica (2023) [Short Article] 
• Intelligence Failure: What, When, Why and How, A. Clark, Grey Dynamics (2023) [Article]
• Yom Kippur War, Pritzker Military Museum and Library, YouTube (2022) [3 min. video] 

DEEPER DIVE

Books

• Eighteen Days in October: The Yom Kippur War and How It Created the Modern Middle East, U. Kaufman (St. Martin Press, 2023)
• THE ANGEL: The Egyptian Spy Who Saved Israel, U. Bar-Joseph (Harper Publishing, 2017)
• The Watchmen Fell Asleep: The Surprise of Yom Kippur and Its Sources, U. Bar-Joseph (State University of New York Press, 2005) 
• The Yom Kippur War: The Epic Encounter That Transformed the Middle East, A. Rabinovich (Shocken, 2004)

Articles

• How Do We Define Intelligence Failure?: Hamas October 2023 Attack on Israel, P. Davies et al., Brunel University Interdisciplinary Research Centre (2023) 
• The troubling analogies surrounding the new Israel-Hamas war, I. Tharoor, The Wall Street Journal (2023) 
• Remembering the Yom Kippur War in a Divided Israel, M. Oren, The Wall Street Journal (2023)
• The Yom Kippur intelligence failure after fifty years: what lessons can be learned?, I. Shapira, Journal of Intelligence and National Security (2023)
• Top Mossad Spy Wasn't Double Agent, Egyptian Spymaster Admits, O. Aderet, Haaretz (2022)
• A Question of Loyalty: Ashraf Marwan and Israel's Intelligence Fiasco in the Yom Kippur War, U. Bar-Joseph, Journal of Intelligence and National Security (2014)
• Intelligence Failure and Need for Cognitive Closure: On the Psychology of the Yom Kippur Surprise, U. Bar-Joseph & Kruglanski, Political Psychology (2003)

Video

• Why Did the Yom Kippur War Happen?, The Intel Report, YouTube (2023)
• The Angel (2018) 

Primary Sources 

• Agranat Commission of Inquiry Interim Report, Center for Israeli Education (1974) 
• Israel-Egypt Separation of Forces Agreement, Center for Israeli Education (1974)
• Intelligence Memorandum: The Israeli Primary Elections (1973)
• United Nations Resolution 338 (1973)
• Response to U.S. Appeal for a Ceasefire (1973)
• Transcript of Secret Talks between Egyptian National Security Adviser Hafez Ismail and US National Security Adviser Henry Kissinger, Center for Israeli Education, Center for Israeli Education (1973)
• Commemoration of IDF Casualties and Congratulations on Victory in Battle (1967)

*Wildcard Resource*

• How did Israeli children experience the Yom Kippur War? 
• Check out this article from the National Library of Israel, which features excerpts from the October 8^th children’s issue of Haaretz and “Letters to the Editor” written by children during the war to hear their perspectives.