The National Intelligence Council with Michael Collins

Summary

Michael Collins joins Andrew to discuss the National Intelligence Council. Michael is the NIC’s current acting chair. 

What You’ll Learn

Intelligence

• The role of the National Intelligence Council
• National Intelligence Officers and their work around the world
• The products of the NIC, including the Annual Threat Assessment
• The importance of Intelligence Diplomacy and objective analysis 

Reflections

• The power of collaboration
• Staying grounded and optimistic

And much, much more …

Episode Notes

This week, Andrew was joined in the studio by Michael Collins, the current acting chair of the National Intelligence Council. The NIC is an incredibly important, yet often overlooked, constituent of the Office of the Director of National Intelligence – Among many other roles and responsibilities, the NIC leads the production of the Annual Threat Assessment and Global Trend publications. 

With decades of experience in the Intelligence Community as an analyst and seasoned leader in the field, Michael Collins is perhaps the perfect person to help our listeners better understand the NIC and the critical bridge it builds between agencies, the intelligence they collect, and policymakers. Tune in to learn more! 

And… 

This year, the National Intelligence Council is celebrating its 45^th anniversary. 1979 was quite a historic year for intelligence and global relations – In addition to the NIC’s founding, the US and China established full diplomatic relations, the Soviet Union invaded Afghanistan, and the Iranian Hostage Crisis began in Tehran. 

Quotes of the Week

“In the analytic product, the first paragraph says: Here's the bad thing. Second paragraph says: This is what the bad thing means for the United States. Third paragraph is: What can be done to stop the bad thing, or more importantly, to identify an opportunity. I have to be optimistic. If I weren't, I wouldn't be in this job.” – Michael Collins. 

Resources 

SURFACE SKIM

*SpyCasts*

• Telling Americans About China (and Intelligence) with Sara Castro (2024)
• CIA Director, Defense Secretary, Gentleman with Leon Panetta (2024)
• The Past 75 Years with Historian of the CIA Rhodri Jeffreys-Jones (2022)
• The National Intelligence University with its President Scott Cameron (2022)

*Beginner Resources*

• America’s Intelligence Community, Explained, Washington Post, YouTube (2014) [2 min. video]
• What is Intelligence Analysis and Why is It So Important? National American University (n.d.) [Short article]
• Members of the IC, Office of the Director of National Intelligence (n.d.) [List of agencies]

DEEPER DIVE

Books

• Truth to Power: A History of the U.S. National Intelligence Council, R. Hutchings & G. F. Treverton (Oxford University Press, 2019)
• Analyzing Intelligence: National Security Practitioners' Perspectives, R. Z. George et. al. (Georgetown University Press, 2014)
• Reducing Uncertainty: Intelligence Analysis and National Security, T. Fingar (‎Stanford University Press, 2011)

Articles

• The 2024 IC Annual Threat Assessment: Analytic Authority and Policy Relevance, S. Seiler, Center for Strategic and International Studies (2024)
• What’s in the US Intelligence Community’s 2024 Annual Threat Assessment? C. Putz, The Diplomat (2024)
• Intelligence After Next: Meeting the China Challenge—Key Focus Areas for the Intelligence Community, M. Stromecki, MITRE (2023)
• The NIC’s Global Trends 2040 Report: A Development Outlook, S. Gale, New Security Beat (2021)
• Imagining a National Intelligence Strategy for the Age of Information Warfare, Z. L. Young III, American Intelligence Journal (2019)
• Change and Continuity: The National Intelligence Council, 2009–2014, C. A. Kojm, Studies in Intelligence (2015)

Video

• Schieffer Series: China’s Rise, Center for Strategic & International Studies, YouTube (2019)

Primary Sources 

• 2024 Annual Threat Assessment (2024) 
• IC OSINT Strategy 2024-2026 (2024) 
• 2023 National Intelligence Strategy (2023)
• Updated Assessment of Anomalous Health Incidents (2023)
• Global Trends 2040 (2021)
• National Intelligence Estimates on Climate Change (2021)

*Wildcard Resource*

• This week’s guest shares a name with another intelligence professional: Michael Collins (1890-1922), a prominent leader of Irish independence. 
• You may remember this Michael Collins from his involvement in the 1916 Easter Rising, but did you know he was also the Director of Intelligence for the Irish Republican Army? Check out some of “The Squad’s” spy gadgets and artifacts here.